World Series prediction…sorta

First let me say that I’m not good at predictions. I picked the Philadelphia Phillies to win it all, and they unfortunately didn’t even make it to the LCS.  But since everyone is making predictions about the World Series, I guess I should also make one.  This year the World Series will feature the surprising St. Louis Cardinals, a team that entering September was all but dead 9 games behind the Atlanta Braves, and the back-to-back American League Champions–and clearly the new class of the American League– the Texas Rangers.  Like last season’s Series, the Rangers are once again the favorites to win the World’s Championship, as they face a team that has a solid bullpen but very shaky starting pitching.  Yet even though most of the baseball world outside of St. Louis is picking the Rangers to win, I’m going to predict that the underdog Cardinals will win it this year’s World Series in seven games.

Key for the Cardinals to win this Series:

For the Cardinals to have a shot at winning the World’s Championship, the key to their potential success is Chris Carpenter and the rest of the Cardinals.  If Chris Carpenter is on his game, and pitches well in 3 out of the seven games, that would put the Cardinals one decent start away by either Garcia, Lohse or Jackson, towards winning the World Series.  In both LCS rounds this season, starting pitching was nowhere to be found, and the redbirds staff didn’t exactly pitch well, as none of their starters made it past the fifth inning in all six games of the series against the Brewers.  So something has to give.  Either the bad starting pitching by both the Cardinals and Rangers will continue, which will benefit the explosive Rangers offense; or the starting pitching will be good that the more experienced Cardinals staff will have an advantage.  If the latter happens, I don’t see why the Cardinals wouldn’t win this series.  Good starting pitching by the Cardinals will create a bridge to a bullpen that has performed exceptionally well in this postseason, and would in a long series benefit St. Louis.  The same could be said about the Rangers, but the Cardinals starting staff is just more experienced, and I don’t see Texas’s lefty starters doing well against the heavy righthanded offense of the Cardinals.  Now, if the former happens (which is likely to happen), the Rangers will win this series easily.

So the key for St. Louis is Chris Carpenter.  He has a good series, the Cardinals will win.  I believe that will happen.  Go Cardinals