One more game.
Last night the Yankees were able to escape out of Detroit with a comfortable blowout win against the Tigers and have extended the season for at least one more game. Now, in game 5, it’s up to Ivan Nova to close out the series and send the Yankees to their third straight ALCS. Unlike AJ, I do have confidence in Nova to get the job done and hopefully he will get it done to set up what could be an exciting ALCS rematch.
But before I, and some of my fellow Yankees fans, look ahead, this ALDS series is far from over. Thursday night will be a rematch of Game 1 2.0 that pit Doug Fister and Ivan Nova. As I said above, I have confidence in Nova to get the job done, now the question is, do I have confidence that the Yankee lineup will get the job done against Fister? They were able to do it in the resumption of game 1, but Fister did held the Yankees down to one run in 4 of the 4.2 innings that he pitched. So it isn’t a given that the Yankees could duplicate the same success this time around.
But we’ll find out tomorrow night whether or not the Yankees will go on and face the Rangers in the ALCS.
In AJ I don’t Trust
Now that the Yankees are on the brink of elimination against the Detroit Tigers in the ALDS, their hopes to reach the ALCS and World Series now rest on the right shoulder of AJ Burnett. About a month ago if you’d ask a Yankees fan if they trust Burnett’s ability to win a big game, the most likely answer you would hear from them is a resounding no. Well, today AJ Burnett is facing a big game and now Yankees fans have no choice but to place their hopes of seeing their team advance farther in the playoffs in the Yankees most inconsistent starter throughout the season. The faith the fans are putting on Burnett is somewhat surreal and at times comical. On Twitter, of all places, an “In AJ we trust” briefly trended in New York City.
But putting aside the tomfoolery, there is in reality no reason to trust in Burnett, or hope that he would give the Yankees a solid start. In the past two seasons, aside from a few solid outings, Burnett has given the Yankees nothing to hang their heads on. Even when staked to big leads, Burnett finds it impossible to keep his head in the game and pitch past the fifth inning, usually imploding by allowing the opposition to get back into the game that any other pitcher would prevent to do. Yet this is the same pitcher Joe Girardi and some Yankees fans hope will help the Yankees even this series against the Tigers?
Where the Yankees should place their real hopes….
The only way the Yankees can get this series back to New York is if their lineup does what it did on Game 1 last Saturday night and starts putting up more runs on the board. After being dominated by Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, the Yankees can take out their frustrations on Rick Porcello. This season, even though Porcello won 14 games, his inconsistency as a starter was the result of his inability to retire left handed hitters. Lefty hitters in the AL feasted off Porcello this season, and that means that the Yankees left handed bats should be able to continue the trend. But even that is easier said than done. For all his struggles against lefties this season, Porcello still gave the Tigers 9 quality starts of 7 innings plus, which means that it’s imperative that the Yankees get the early lead and continue to pressure Porcello throughout the night. That is the only way the Yankees win tonight. Otherwise, it was a good season.
Quick NL Postseason predictions!
Here are my quick postseason predictions for the National League Division Series.
Phillies/Cardinals: Only if the Cardinals had a healthy Adam Wainwright in the rotation would I predict an upset of the Phillies. However, with Chris Carpenter and the solid pitching of Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia, I think the Cardinals can compete and possibly upset the heavily favorite Phillies. But the possibility of a Cardinals upset is in all reality a long shot, as the Phillies rotation is by far the most complete of all the teams in the postseason. The combination of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels will be difficult to score upon, let alone beat.
Lineup by lineup, the Cardinals have a slight edge. The Cardinals offense is led by early NL MVP Lance Berkman, who put up incredible numbers in his first season with the Cardinals. Albert Pujols put a miserable start to his season behind, by finishing with a strong .299 batting average, 37 home runs and an OPS of .905. Adding to Berkman and Pujols offensive production is third baseman David Freese. Freese is by far a better offensive producer than Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco, posting a OBP of .350 and a .299 batting average, compared with Polanco’s .335 OBP and .277 batting average. But with that being said, what wins games in October is pitching and defense, and the Phillies have both. Look for Philadelphia starters to neutralize the Cardinals offense, while the Phillies offense in the other hand will win games with timely hitting from their best offensive players Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Ryan Howard.
Phillies in 4.
Brewers/DBacks: The surprising Arizona Diamondbacks are in the postseason this year, even though most experts picked them to finish last. I certainly did. Coming into the season, the Diamondbacks looked like a rebuilding team rather than a division champion. I expected them to dump players like Justin Upton, Miguel Montero by the trade deadline as I figured their season would be over by July 31. Instead the Diamondbacks put together a strong season , led by one time Yankee prospect Ian Kennedy and surprised everyone by beating out the World Series Champions San Francisco Giants for the division crown.
Brewers on the other hand took advantage of the Cardinals losing Adam Wainwright, and the Reds disappointing season to win the NL Central. The Brew-crew won the NL Central with offense and finally with pitching, as Zach Greinke anchored a rotation that was virtually unbeatable at home. For that reason, I think the Brewers will win this series and head to the NLCS. The Brewers will be difficult to beat at home, and I just don’t trust Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Joe Saunders to pitch well in the big moment. Saunders failed to do that for the Angels in 2009 and will fail the Dbacks this season. Also, as impressive as Ian Kennedy was this season, this will be his first playoff appearance and the moment might just be a bit too big for the kid. Brewers are tough at home and will be tougher in a short series.
Brewers in 4.
Wild ending!
Back in early August ESPN radio blowhard Colin Cowherd complained that the Major League Baseball season was too long and that the schedule should be cut down to at least 150 to 130 games. He said, to paraphrase, ‘there is no need to have 162 games when most playoff spots were already decided.‘ Clearly not knowing or understanding baseball history, Cowherd thought all the teams leading their divisions and Wild Card races were basically a lock to make the postseason. Fortunately the Tampa Bay Rays and the St. Louis Cardinals didn’t get the memo and not only fought throughout August to put themselves in a position to make a postseason run, but both took advantage of the September collapses of the Atlanta Braves and Boston Red Sox the respective leagues. Therefore, it came down to game 162 of the marathon to decide the Wild Card races and complete the postseason picture. Who said baseball needs less regular season games?
Historic collapse!
I have seen historic collapses in my 19 years of watching baseball, and some of the collapses that comes to mind right away when you think about them are the 1995 Angels collapse, along with the Mets 2007 collapse that unleashed the beast known as the current Philadelphia Phillies. And of course, probably the worst collapse in the history of baseball, the Yankees blowing a 3 game lead against the Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS (one out away from continuing the Curse…I feel like puking). But to speak of historic regular season collapses, game 162 of the 2011 season saw the complete and historic crash of two teams that entered the month of September holding comfortable leads in their respective Wild Card races. On September 2, the Boston Red Sox held a 9 game lead in the American League Wild Card race; while the Atlanta Braves held a 8 1/2 game lead in the National League Wild Card race. The way both teams played this season, there was no way in the world they would collapse in late September and lose their leads. I mean just looking at both teams, the Red Sox either lead the Wild Card or American League east from May 24, while the Braves had a commanding Wild Card lead throughout the summer and at one point early in the season, were just 4 games behind the eventual NL East champions Phillies. There was just no conceivable way these two teams would miss the playoffs. Yet they did.
I have to do research in order to rank these two collapses, but the fact that they happened, once again shows the importance of the 162 game schedule. No one can sit and say in August that the playoff teams leading their divisions and wild card races, will be the same teams leading their races by the end of September. As far as I’m concerned, 162 games just isn’t enough!
Strasburg: Believe the Hype 2.2.
Stephen Strasburg will make his season debut tonight, after missing much of the season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. As one of those that bought into and believes in the hype of Strasburg, although this start by the young phenom isn’t as hyped as his major league debut was, I’m really looking forward to his start tonight. One of the things that I will be looking for in Strasburg is whether or not he has changed his delivery after the injury. It was clear to me, and more knowledgeable observers of the game, that Strasburg’s delivery was unorthodox and likely contributed to his injury.
Anyone who saw Strasburg pitch last season probably didn’t notice that he had a tendency to rush his delivery. What the pitcher is doing when he is rushing is easy to see when you know what to look for. One obvious tendency of a pitcher that is rushing is when he steps to home plate while his pitching arm is at a horizontal position instead of being at a 90 degree angle. This motion puts pressure not only on the pitcher’s shoulder but inevitably on the elbow as well. And Strasburg was guilty of this many times last season I was surprised that then National’s manager Jim Riggleman didn’t address this with Strasburg(if Riggleman address it, let me apologize, but I don’t remember reading about it at the time). The picture at the left side of the column is an example of Strasburg rushing his delivery. So as a fan of the game, and aficionado of the science of pitching, I’m truly looking forward to watching any changes, if any, in his delivery.
I truly believe the hype that Strasburg could be the next best dominant pitcher in baseball. Last year he showed he has the stuff to dominate lineups and pitch on the same level a Verlander, Halladay, Lee and Sabathia are on. The question that remains with Strasburg is whether or not his mechanics will be adjusted for the rigors of a full season. The answer to that question will likely come next season, as I doubt Strasburg will be under an innings limit.
The Decline of Jeter
Nothing in sports is more depressing to watch than a modern day supertar athlete in decline. A once burning fire–fueled by a commitment to excellence, the desire to be the best and more importantly the drive to be a champion– now reduced to a few dying embers could bring anyone to tears. The superstar of today being reduced to a dying star is indeed a hard thing to see.
Today, one of those superstars that is in decline before our own very eyes is none other than the Yankees captain Derek Jeter. Jeter is having a tough year. Before injuring his calf muscle in June, Jeter’s statistics were terrible, indicative of the end of the road. His batting average was .260, a career low, which was made worse by the fact that it was compounded by his low OBP (.324) and SLG (.324), both also career lows. Jeter’s critics look at these numbers and with a twinkle in their eyes, point their fingers at us know-nothing Jeter fans, and say: “We told you so.”
Throughout Jeter’s career, I’ve heard the critics and was never convinced, until now. I can finally say that I have been convinced by their wisdom and see Jeter for what he is, a player in decline that is in someways slightly overrated.
Jeter, like some other slightly overrated players like Wade Boggs, Roberto Clement, to name a few, is a member of the 3,000 hit club. Like Boggs and Clemente, and other members of that exclusive club, Jeter got his 3,000 base hit during his decline. Clearly, is there any other mark of Jeter’s declining and overrated status as a player than his consistency as a hitter during his 16 major league seasons?
Another clear example of Jeter’s decline as a major league player has to be the lack of production since coming off the DL. Since the 4th of July, the day Jeter was activated, he has posted a terrible batting average of .342. To make matters worse, his OBP is a league worse .394, with a dysmal slugging percentage of .553. That means that Jeter’s OPS since last July 4th, is a crappy .947. During this stretch of decline, Jeter has gotten a laughable 55 hits, 10 of which were fluke doubles. He has scored 26 meaningless runs and drove in a ridiculously low 26 runners. Certainly, the decline is full steam ahead. Just compare the same stretch of games from last season and you will clearly see it. At the same time frame last season (July 4th through August 21st), Jeter had a .243 batting average, with a .307 OBP and a very solid .364 slugging percentage. Clearly, those were not the numbers of a player in decline!
After seeing the evidence, I am now with the Jeter’s critics. They were always right about him, I just failed to see it because I have been blinded by the Jeter aura since 1995. But now that I have corrected the error of my ways and see Jeter for what he truly is, I now feel better about myself. Afterall, us Jeter critics are smart. Our collective baseball IQ is between 0 and negative infinity.
Expanding Replay after the Year of the Umpire
If last season is remembered as the “Year of the Pitcher,” can we remember this season as “The Year of the Umpire”? And when I say “Year of the Umpire,” I don’t mean it in a good way. It’s no mystery to baseball fans that over the past 15 seasons the state of umpiring in the game has been nothing short of dreadful. The missed home runs by umpires forced the league to adopt a limited instant replay system a few years ago. But with the bad calls this season, it’s clear to anyone that is paying attention that this has not been a good year for the men in blue and that replay needs to be expanded.
Two weeks ago, umpire Jerry Meals made what probably has to be the most egregious decisions in the history of umpiring, when he ruled that Julio Lugo was safe at home plate with the winning run, of what was up to that point a 19 inning classic between the Braves and Pirates. You didn’t need to see a replay of Julio Lugo being tagged out at home plate to know what happened since it was clear to anyone watching at home that he was out by–not a mile–but an astronomical mile. Yet, Meals, the third closest person to the play, somehow, thought that Lugo was safe which gave the Braves a 19 inning victory, and the Pirates a crushing defeat which they haven’t recovered from. And two nights ago, Dana DeMuth committed a similar blunder of his own when he ruled a Billy Butler double, that did not clear the fence at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City, a home run. These two examples, are just the epitome of the bad calls we have seen throughout the league this season, and from the looks of it, things are likely to get worse. And what could be worse for the league is another bad call that ultimately decides the World Series.
Expanding replay…
With all these bad calls by the umpires this season, I think it’s time that the League urgently consider expanding instant replay. Such a system shouldn’t eliminate the umpire’s judgment calls, but eliminate the idea that all judgment calls by them is final and irreversible and not to be questioned by other umpires. The Commissioner should also dismiss the arguments against replay, since most are ridiculous to begin with.
The length of the game, one argument goes, would be higher with expanded replay. The reality is that replay will not affect the length of the game. The League can take steps to make the games faster, and one of the ways to do that is to enforce the 12 second rule between pitches when there are no runners on base. Second, it should stop batters from stepping out of the box after every pitch. With these measures in place, a five minute review at a play (in reality most plays take less than five minutes to review) would be inconsequential to the time of the game.
The other ridiculous argument against replay is that it would take the “human element” and interest out of the game. Actually it won’t. What replay would do is correct the “human element” of the game. The game is interesting to watch when you consider the fact that umpires do make mistake on crucial plays; but consider the added increase in the interest to a ball game when controversial calls, thanks to the human element, can be reversed. What if Joe Mauer’s “foul ball” in game 2 of the ALDS in 2009, between the Yankees and Twins, had been reversed thanks to replay and ruled a double? The human element of the game wouldn’t have been eliminated, but correct. And the process to correct the call would have attracted the interest of many fans around the country, as the complexion of the game and of that series would have been different than what it ultimately turned out to be.
The fact is, most of the arguments against replay are bad. The League has ample evidence of the way technology can be used to correct calls and instead of hiding behind exploratory committees and bad arguments, the Commissioner and the rules committee should form a system of replay that will help preserve the integrity of the game.
Streakin’ Phillies
I think it’s safe to say that the Phillies sent a pretty strong message to the Giants last night: things are different this season. I understand that there are two months left in the baseball season and come October things could definately change; but no one can mistake the fact that the Phillies are sending a clear message to the rest of the National League–if not all of Major League Baseball–that they are the team to beat. After a 9-2 drubbing of the defending World Series Champions last night–a game that featured a meeting of the minds between the two teams–the Phils now sport the best record in all of baseball (73-39). Philadelphia also has the most complete pitching rotation and an offense that is red hot since the arrival of Hunter Pence.
The Phillies latest victim was Jonathan Sanchez, who is having a pretty disappointing season for the Giants. The Giants provided Sanchez with a quick run, a lead that didn’t last as the Phillies came alive in the 4th inning and scored four runs, in route to an easy blow out victory. Judging from the success of the Phillies lineup of late against San Francisco, and a stolen base by Jimmy Rollins with a six run lead in this game, Ramon Ramirez apparently had enough and decided to plunk Shane Victorino. Since last October’s NLCS, the Giants and Phillies have now developed something close to a rivalry. Last night’s get together on the infield served as a sort of coming attractions of what baseball fans could potentially see from these two teams if they meet again in October. But before getting ahead of ourselves, the question I have is whether the Phillies will retaliate tonight.
Aside from their offensive prowess, here is another impressive thing about the Phillies: the emergence of rookie Vance Worley into a reliable starter. Worley, who has been filling Roy Oswalt’s spot in the rotation, is now 8-1. With Worley’s success, an interesting dilema could develop when Oswalt comes off the disabled list, as the Phillies will have to make room for Oswalt.
I Heart Cliff Lee, part 2
Last October I wrote that Cliff Lee is the lefty version of Greg Maddux–a finesse pitcher with stuff that is not overpowering–but one who possesses incredible control of his pitches. Last night in San Francisco Cliff Lee was truly in control, as he tossed his Major League leading 5th shutout this season, holding the Giants to only 7 hits while striking out 8. In a rematch from last fall’s World Series, Lee faced Cody Ross in San Francisco, and this time Lee came out on top striking out Ross 4 times. At one point during the game, Lee set down ten Giants in a row, displaying the killer command that has made Lee a deadly post season pitcher.
Now that the run towards October has begun, I look for Lee to reassert his dominance in the last two months of the season, and hopefully he will once again shine big in baseball’s biggest stage. I know that Lee hasn’t been as great in the regular season as he is in the post season. However, he takes his game to another level when the stakes are high. His only great regular season came during his Cy Young season of 2008 when he won 22 games for an awful Cleveland Indians team. In 2009, Lee was an ordinary pitcher in the regular season again, even after being traded to the Phillies he didn’t put great numbers. But once October came, Lee began pitching in another level not seen since Bob Gibson in the late 1960′s. Last season, Lee was once again a very ordinary pitcher in the regular season, only to carry the Rangers past the favored Rays and Yankees and into the World Series in October. It took Cody Ross and the pitching of Tim Lincecum to finally hand Lee his first two post season defeats. But even though he lost game 5 of the World Series, Lee was brilliant that night and no one can deny what a weapon he is to a team in the post season. The fact that Lee will follow Halladay in the Phillies rotation, truly makes Philadelphia the team to beat in the National League.
Pirates’ losing skid hits 7
Since “losing” the 19 inning marathon to the Braves last week, the Pirates have now gone 1 and 7 in their last 8 games, and have lost seven games in a row. If there is someone out there that doesn’t think that blown call by Jerry Meals hasn’t affected the Pirates in any significant way, then they are clearly not paying attention. Last night, the Pirates lost to the Cubs 7-6.
David Veloz
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