Results tagged ‘ Cliff Lee ’
Quick NL Postseason predictions!
Here are my quick postseason predictions for the National League Division Series.
Phillies/Cardinals: Only if the Cardinals had a healthy Adam Wainwright in the rotation would I predict an upset of the Phillies. However, with Chris Carpenter and the solid pitching of Kyle Lohse and Jaime Garcia, I think the Cardinals can compete and possibly upset the heavily favorite Phillies. But the possibility of a Cardinals upset is in all reality a long shot, as the Phillies rotation is by far the most complete of all the teams in the postseason. The combination of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels will be difficult to score upon, let alone beat.
Lineup by lineup, the Cardinals have a slight edge. The Cardinals offense is led by early NL MVP Lance Berkman, who put up incredible numbers in his first season with the Cardinals. Albert Pujols put a miserable start to his season behind, by finishing with a strong .299 batting average, 37 home runs and an OPS of .905. Adding to Berkman and Pujols offensive production is third baseman David Freese. Freese is by far a better offensive producer than Phillies third baseman Placido Polanco, posting a OBP of .350 and a .299 batting average, compared with Polanco’s .335 OBP and .277 batting average. But with that being said, what wins games in October is pitching and defense, and the Phillies have both. Look for Philadelphia starters to neutralize the Cardinals offense, while the Phillies offense in the other hand will win games with timely hitting from their best offensive players Jimmy Rollins, Hunter Pence and Ryan Howard.
Phillies in 4.
Brewers/DBacks: The surprising Arizona Diamondbacks are in the postseason this year, even though most experts picked them to finish last. I certainly did. Coming into the season, the Diamondbacks looked like a rebuilding team rather than a division champion. I expected them to dump players like Justin Upton, Miguel Montero by the trade deadline as I figured their season would be over by July 31. Instead the Diamondbacks put together a strong season , led by one time Yankee prospect Ian Kennedy and surprised everyone by beating out the World Series Champions San Francisco Giants for the division crown.
Brewers on the other hand took advantage of the Cardinals losing Adam Wainwright, and the Reds disappointing season to win the NL Central. The Brew-crew won the NL Central with offense and finally with pitching, as Zach Greinke anchored a rotation that was virtually unbeatable at home. For that reason, I think the Brewers will win this series and head to the NLCS. The Brewers will be difficult to beat at home, and I just don’t trust Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Joe Saunders to pitch well in the big moment. Saunders failed to do that for the Angels in 2009 and will fail the Dbacks this season. Also, as impressive as Ian Kennedy was this season, this will be his first playoff appearance and the moment might just be a bit too big for the kid. Brewers are tough at home and will be tougher in a short series.
Brewers in 4.
I Heart Cliff Lee, part 2
Last October I wrote that Cliff Lee is the lefty version of Greg Maddux–a finesse pitcher with stuff that is not overpowering–but one who possesses incredible control of his pitches. Last night in San Francisco Cliff Lee was truly in control, as he tossed his Major League leading 5th shutout this season, holding the Giants to only 7 hits while striking out 8. In a rematch from last fall’s World Series, Lee faced Cody Ross in San Francisco, and this time Lee came out on top striking out Ross 4 times. At one point during the game, Lee set down ten Giants in a row, displaying the killer command that has made Lee a deadly post season pitcher.
Now that the run towards October has begun, I look for Lee to reassert his dominance in the last two months of the season, and hopefully he will once again shine big in baseball’s biggest stage. I know that Lee hasn’t been as great in the regular season as he is in the post season. However, he takes his game to another level when the stakes are high. His only great regular season came during his Cy Young season of 2008 when he won 22 games for an awful Cleveland Indians team. In 2009, Lee was an ordinary pitcher in the regular season again, even after being traded to the Phillies he didn’t put great numbers. But once October came, Lee began pitching in another level not seen since Bob Gibson in the late 1960′s. Last season, Lee was once again a very ordinary pitcher in the regular season, only to carry the Rangers past the favored Rays and Yankees and into the World Series in October. It took Cody Ross and the pitching of Tim Lincecum to finally hand Lee his first two post season defeats. But even though he lost game 5 of the World Series, Lee was brilliant that night and no one can deny what a weapon he is to a team in the post season. The fact that Lee will follow Halladay in the Phillies rotation, truly makes Philadelphia the team to beat in the National League.
Predictions…..N.L
I’m not good at making predictions since it seems that every year I pick the Yankees to win the World Series (I know I’m biased). However, I have decided to put aside my bias for the moment and objectively look at the season that is almost upon us. So, as we bid farewell to the month long Spring Training interlude before the beginning of the marathon–and to the players who unfortunately will not be in the Show–it is time to make brief but objective prediction for the upcoming season.
After an exciting and surprising post-season, the off season had its share of excitement and surprises. The biggest surprise and excitement this past winter undoubtedly has to be Cliff Lee’s rejection of both the Yankees and Rangers in favor of the Philadelphia Phillies. By taking less money to be a member of the Phillies Lee joined a team that already had three legitimate aces. Now that Lee is part of the Phillies rotation the Four Horsemen (and Joe Blanton) made the Philadelphia the early winter favorites to win the National League and the World Series. In Boston, the signing of Carl Crawford and the trade for Adrian Gonzalez made the Red Sox the early winter favorites to win the American League and represent it in the World Series…of course losing to the Phillies in 7 games (when a Jimmy Rollins slow roller gets through the legs of Gonzalez, allowing Shane Victorino to score the game winning and Series ending run…hahaha).
But those were the few predictions of the winter. How do these predictions and among the others made but not mention above hold now that Spring Training is over? Well, time will tell. Here are now my National League predictions.
N.L East Champions: Atlanta Braves
Yes, I’ll admit it, it seems insane for me to pick the Braves over the Phillies especially when the later have the Four Horsemen at the top of their rotation. However, there is a method to my madness and I believe the reasons I am about to give will be correct by the end of the year. At the moment, the Braves lineup is a tad better than Phily’s lineup. The veteran Chipper Jones will be the anchor of this lineup and if he stays healthy, he could very well have a productive season since he will have protection in the lineup that will include Dan Uggla, Brian McCann and Jason Hayward. Although the Braves do not have the rotation that the Phillies possess, they still have a formidable rotation with Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe and Jair Jurjens. What will help these pitchers out will be Atlanta’s tough lineup. However, there is an achillies hill on this team and that is their defense. If they want to win the division, the Braves have to improve.
N.L Central Champions: Cincinnati Reds
Adam Wainwright’s season ending injury early this Spring has definately opened the door for the Reds to continue what they started last year, as they surprisingly took the Division title over the St. Louis Cardinals. And this year, I look for the same thing to happen. The core of this team is built around NL MVP Joey Votto. With Votto leading this team, the Reds didn’t do much this winter to improve, but they didn’t need to. The Reds pitching is also deep with no shortage of arms in the rotation and in the bullpen. However, don’t count out the Cardinals yet, or dismiss the Brewers. I think this will be a close three team race and in the end, the Reds will come out on top.
N.L West Champions: San Francisco Giants
This is an easy pick, but which other team in the NL West has the pitching rotation the Giants possess? It was the pitching of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez and especially Bumgarner that carried this team through the first two rounds of the playoffs and in the World Series. And it will be this rotation that will carry the Giants back to the post season and possibly back to the World Series. The Giants however need to improve their on their lineup since they could face a much tougher opposition in the post season this time around after the improvements made by the Braves and Phillies.
N.L Wild Card: Philadelphia Phillies
They stole Cliff Lee away from the Yankees so the Baseball Gods will punish them this season. But to be serious, I think the Phillies will have the best rotation in the NL, but a substandard lineup that will struggle to score runs. The injury this Spring to Chase Utley doesn’t help and the fact that Jayson Werth left town for DC will have a major impact on the Phillies ability to score runs. Jimmy Rollins has to be the most overrated short stop in the league and since his MVP year (which he won on the strength of a Spring Training prediction..hmm), Rollins has been on the decline. In 2011 Rollins’ decline will continue. Moreover, will Ryan Howard’s power numbers decline again this year? If they do, how can this lineup score runs to support their pitchers?
The Phillies pitching staff looks great on paper, but in reality, there are some issues. Leave Roy Halladay aside, Cliff Lee is not a great regular season pitcher as he is in the post season. His only dominant regular season came in 2008 for a very poor Cleveland Indians club. Moreover, Lee is injury prone and it wouldn’t surprise me if he spent sometime in the DL this year. As for Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels, I believe that both will have good years, but will only win 12 to 14 games each. The only pitcher in this rotation which could win more than 15 games is Roy Halladay.
NLCS: Giants over Phillies in 7 games: Giants have the younger pitching staff that has come a long long way after their success last year. With that experience and confidence, they will take down the Phillies again to earn another trip to the World Series.
Rangers/Yankees war of words part 23
The war of words between the Texas Rangers and New York Yankees front offices continues, this time Randy Levine, President of the Yankees, responds with what is a rather very low blow to the Rangers, after their owner Chuck Greenberg said his negotiations with Cliff Lee was part of the reason why the lefty didn’t sign with the Yankees. Levine called the comments by Greenberg delusional and added that Greenberg should keep his team off “welfare”.
Look, as a devoted Yankees fan I already have a very low opinion of Chuck Greenberg. His disparaging comments towards Yankees fans during the Fall Classic last October was an insult to me and to those fans who have supported the franchise before their recent 16 year run success. I would like to think that Greenberg was refering to the frauds or bandwagon fans (they usually seat in the Bleachers..) but he wasn’t because he was refering to people like me. So whatever stupid thing Greenberg has said since then I have ignored. His comments regarding the Cliff Lee negotiations are also stupid since it was clear that Lee didn’t want to stay in Texas and didn’t want to go to New York. Had Philadelphia not traded Lee (a move they probably regretted when Ryan Howard stared at strike three in the NLCS…not that it would have matter since Cody Ross roughed up Lee, Halladay and Hamels during the Giants post-season run) he would have resigned with the Phillies anyway. So Greenberg’s comments were just dumb…something that should be ignored.
But someone within the Yankee brass didn’t ignore them and fired off a completely asinine rant against Greenberg and the Rangers. Randy Levine’s comments about the Rangers staying off welfare are disgraceful and are truly a disservice to the League. The “welfare” system that Levine suggests the Rangers stay off from, is the system that keeps the economics of baseball from completely spiraling out of control and from having big market clubs completely dominate the game, while medium to small market teams, like the Rangers, would be out of luck with no chance at success. As imperfect as the system is, that welfare system saved the Rangers from bankruptcy and gave that franchise new life and hope of becoming a competitive team again. Moreover, after the questionable signing of Rafael Soriano to a ridiculous 3 year contract, I think Levine and others within the Yankee brass (except for Cashman, the spendthrift GM who was the only voice of reason regarding the signing of Soriano) should keep their mouths shut about the economics of other clubs. Seriously, it’s time for the grownups in both organizations to reign in this foolish war of words.
To 10 of 2010: The Year of the Pitcher…and yes the Giants win!
Now that the countdown to the new year is literally several hours away, the baseball world will likely remember 2010 as the year of the Pitcher in Major League Baseball. Unlike the the 1968 season, 2010 did see high offensive production, but the performances of pitchers throughout during the season had signal the end of the steroid era (we hope) and the beginning of another pitcher era in the game.
2010 had at least 30 games in which pitchers took a no-hitter into the six inning or later and in which 6 actual no hitters were thrown (two of them were perfect games), and that was just in the regular season. In the post season, Doc Halladay threw a no hitter in game one of the NLDS, three months after he threw a perfect gem in Florida. The culmination of the Year of the Pitcher was the San Francisco Giants pitching staff, led by Tim Lincecum, carrying the team to its first World Series championship since 1954, and the first one as the San Francisco Giants.
Top 10 moments of 2010…at least for me:
10. As the title says, the Year of the Pitcher. Besides the two perfect games and three no hitters, 15 pitchers in the Majors struckout 200 batters or more, tying a record in 2010. 2010 also saw the debut of young pitchers that helped their teams win.
9. A-Rod 600th Home run was a pretty big deal. He is one of the youngest players in Baseball history to accomplish the feat, besting Babe Ruth by one year. Although he is no Babe Ruth, A-Rod is one of the greatest players of the last 15 years. Whatever people may think of him personally, no one can deny his ability to play the game.
8. Stephen Strasburg’s debut on June 8 created such a buzz that Nationals Park was actually sold out, probably for the second time during the year (I say that guessing that opening day was also sold out). Strasburg, who was drafted in 2009 was a much hyped draft pick and that night against the Pirates, he lived up to the hype by striking out 14 batters. In his first four games, Strasburg went on to strike out 41 batters.
7. Retirement of Lou Pinella, which didn’t come as a surprise too many. What was probably more surprising was when he decided to retire. Pinella decided to call it a career at the end of August. After a promising start as manager of the Cubs, his last two years with the club were incredibly difficult given the expectations that he and his club failed to meet.
6. Retirement of Ken Griffey Jr. came as a surprise. The Kid decided to call it a career after getting off to such a poor start, that one unnamed teammate accused the former superstar of sleeping in the clubhouse while the game was still being played on the field. Moreover, the Mariners poor start after an aggressive off-season, had that clubhouse reeling. Griffey jumped ship before Don Wakamatsu lost the clubhouse for good in the middle of the season.
5. Retirement of Bobby Cox and Cito Gaston for me marked the end of an era. Both managers led powerhouses in the early 1990′s and both managers led their teams to the World Series in 1992, in which the Blue Jays were victorious. Bobby Cox led the Braves to 15 consecutive playoff appearences and a World Series championship in 1995. Gaston on the other hand led the Blue Jays to back to back World Series Championships in the early 1990′s.
4. Jim Joyce blown call that cost Armando Gallaraga a moment in baseball history. That call will ultimately go down in history as the one that will force the game to adopt instant replay.
3. Texas Rangers magical season has to be at number 3 for me. The franchise entered the 2010 season in bankruptcy protection, only to emerge from bankruptcy with a new ownership group, new television contract and its first trip to the World Series after pounding the then defending World Series Champion Yankees. 2010 is the season that possibly saved the Texas Rangers franchise..
2. As mentioned above, the San Francisco Giants won their first World Series title since 1954. They accomplish that feat by their strong pitching rotation led by Tim Lincecum who out pitched Cliff Lee in both his World Series starts. Giants beat the Braves, beat the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies, and quieted the bats of the slugging Rangers in the Series.
1. George Steinbrenner dies. As the title of Bill Madden’s book says, Steinbrenner was the last lion of baseball. He is responsible for resurrecting the Yankee franchise from last place and making it the juggernaut it is today.
Cliff Lee heads back to Philadelphia..
And the winner of the Cliff Lee sweepstakes is……The Philadelphia Phillies. In a surprising turn of events, the mystery team that was competing against the Yankees and Rangers for Cliff Lee’s services was none other than the Philadelphia Phillies, the team that traded Lee away last December to acquire Roy Halladay. Lee is said to have agreed to a 5 year $100 contract, which if true would mean that he would rather take $50 million less to pitch for the Phillies rather than signing with the Yankees. So what does it all mean? For one, the Phillies are once again the favorites to win the National League pennant in 2011 as they will field the scariest rotation since 1971 Baltimore Orioles, when Jim Palmer, Dave McNally, Mike Cuelar and Pat Dobson each won 20 games. With the addition of Lee, the Phillies have four potential 20 win starters. Second, the Phillies now have the luxury to trade a pitcher like Joe Blanton and get replenish the farm system with better prospects than they received in the Cliff Lee trade to Seattle last season. Overall, Ruben Amaro and the Phillies are the biggest winners of the offseason at the moment, as the Phillies rotation, on paper at least, looks like the best in all of baseball.
And the Yankees…..
….are the biggest losers this offseason. The Yankees not only failed to land Cliff Lee, but also failed to land their plan B in Carl Crawford, who will now patrol the Green Monster in Beantown. But being losers in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes isn’t the end for the Yankees. As I said before, it would be better for the Yankees to start building from within the organization again. The Yankees have an aging infield, a shaky rotation and a thin bench. Landing Cliff Lee for 2011 could have no doubt helped the Yankees in the short run, but could have presented larger problems in the long run. What if Cliff Lee had signed with the Yankees and suffered a back injury at some point in the middle of the season? I know that Brian Cashman would be sitting in his office saying, “oh not again….first Irabu, then Brown, then Johnson, then Pavano, and now Lee!” As useful as Lee could have been to the Yankees this season, he isn’t worth 6 years at $120 or more. More importantly, Lee won’t help Jeter or A-Rod increase their range in the infield or make the Yankees younger. Although the Yankees lost the offseason sweepstakes, the opportunity to get younger and better has opened itself and the question now becomes: Will Brian Cashman build a winning team without signing high priced free agents?
And the Rangers…
…were delt a big blow to their chances of repeating as World Series representatives for the American League. Although the Rangers are young team, pitchers like CJ Wilson will definately miss the veteran presence Lee gave that rotation last season. Losing Cliff Lee will hurt the Rangers chances of going to the playoffs, but not for long, as this team is young and has talent ready to flurish.
Yankees losing confidence…
Just heard on ESPN 1050, that the Yankees are losing confidence in their ability to land Cliff Lee. After the Red Sox surprised everyone with excellent moves to revamp their team, the Yankees are now under even more pressure to respond. So it doesn’t bode well for the Yankees that they are stating publicly that they might in the end lose Cliff Lee. To that I say, great. As I said before, I don’t want Cliff Lee, I want the Yankees to beat him instead. A $160 million contract for seven years would be a reckless one. If people think that Carl Crawford and Jason Werth received ridiculously long contracts just wait until Cliff Lee, who is 32 and is injury prone, signs his contract.
If the Yankees do not sign Lee, so be it. Losing the offseason sweepstakes isn’t the end of the world, and the fact that the Yankees will have so many aging players in their lineup, potentially losing Cliff Lee could be a good thing for the organization as they might, I say might, concentrate on rebuilding the team through the farm system.
I don’t want Cliff Lee.
As a Yankees fan, let me say this once and for all: I don’t want the Yankees to sign Cliff Lee. The reason why I feel this way is that the Yankees, with Lee, will continue to be a team that is old and falling behind their American League competition in youth and talent. Lee will no doubt contribute to the Yankees in the short term and give them another legitimate innings pitcher. However, whatever short term success there is with a guy like Lee in the rotation, the Yankees in my humble opinion will hurt their long term plans. In five years, Cliff Lee will be 37 or 38 years old. Whatever he has accomplished since 2007 thanks to his skills will probably be lost by 2015. More over, three of the Yankees “Core Four”, the foundation that built the late 1990′s dynasty, and the 2009 Championship team are diminishing in skill. Only Mariano Rivera continues to be productive. But Jeter, Pettitte and Posada are looking older and playing like it. As I wrote before, Jeter’s range at short is clearly diminishing. The fact that he was award a Gold Glove fails to account for the fact that MLB scouts last season saw his actual defensive skills short of what is expected by an average shortstop. Once again, the Texas Rangers believed they could hit and run and bunt their way on because Jeter, Posada and A-Rod have lost a step. Instead of wasting valueable resources on Lee, the Yankees should do more to get younger.
I know that patience with getting younger runs thin in New York. But remember, the Yankees built their championships, not on high priced free agents, but on the drafting of solid talent like Jeter, Posada, Bernie Williams, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera and by the signing of solid role players like Paul O’Neill, Scott Brosius, Chuck Knoblauch, etc. I think the Yankees should return to that model instead of wasting $400 million in free agency every two years.
San Francisco Giants 2010 World Series Champions.
A big congratulations to the San Francisco Giants on winning the 2010 World Series and thus becoming the new World Series champions. What more could be said about a team of “misfits” whom without a single superstar in their roster, were able not only to beat the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS but hand Cliff Lee his first two successive post season loses of his career.
Once again, Congratulations to the Giants and their fans.
Yankees season down to one game…at a time.
After another crushing defeat at the hands of the Texas Rangers, the Yankees season comes down to the strength of CC Sabathia’s arm later on this afternoon. Out of options, the Yankees now need to take it one game at a time if they hope to continue playing this season, and ultimately hope that Sabathia would come out and pitch like the ace he has been for the Bombers since 09. Otherwise, another bad start by Sabathia and the season ends….no more baseball until March for the Yanks. So CC’s job today is simple; pitch 8 innings of shut out dominant baseball, and hope the offense wakes up and figures out CJ Wilson. Take this series back to Texas and hope for the best.
What happened?
Even though I don’t make predictions before the beginning of a playoff series, and I specially do not make predictions when the team I root for is involved, I did however write before game 1 that if the Yankees have trouble with their situational hitting, they would lose this series. So far the Yankees have not only struggled with their situational hitting, but have struck out an unreal 39 times. A team that is built on power, as the Yankees are, will not win many games if they are undisciplined at the plate. Putting aside game 3, their inability to put pressure on two suspect Rangers starters in Hunter and Lewis will be the reason why this team will lose this series. Pitching wise, the Yankees starters, other than Pettitte and for five innings, Burnett, haven’t pitched to their level. Sabathia, as has been noted, was horrible in both his post season starts, not pitching to the level of an ace the Yankees have become accustomed to. Hughes had a very good start in the ALDS, but unfortunately pitched poorly in game two of this series. In those two games, the Yankees gave up 13 runs and if not for a miraculous comeback in the 8th inning of game one, would have been outscored 13-1. On top of that, the Yankees will now be forced to be without Mark Teixeira who hurt his hamstring in last night’s debacle. Although Teixeira wasn’t having a good series, his glove in the field will be missed. Lance Berkman is a decent defensive first baseman, but he isn’t Mark Teixeira.
The Rangers on the other hand have done everything right. They have not ony pitched well, but are hitting in the clutch, getting big hits when needed. Last night, the big clutch hit came off the bat of Bengie Molina, who once again hits another clutch playoff homerun against the Yankees. This time, the three run job, gave the Rangers a 2 run lead to basically put the game away. Now all the Rangers have to do is win one more game. If they lose today and in Friday night’s game, they have literally nothing to worry about, as the Magnificent Lee will take the mound in game 7 and possibly send the Texas Rangers to their first World Series in franchise history.
NLCS Update..
The Giants take a 2-1 series lead over the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies and are now on the drivers seat ready to take control of this series later on this afternoon. Before the series began, I questioned Matt Cain’s ability to out pitch Cole Hamels and wonder if the moment would be too big for Cain and the young Giants pitching staff. Well, I guess Cain answered my questions by outpitching Cole Hamels and continuing his good pitching in the post season. In 13 innings so far, I don’t believe Matt Cain has allowed a run to score. Moreover, the Giants are suddenly hitting in clutch situations. Cody Ross delivered a key RBI single with two outs in the 4th and two runners on, to give the Giants a one to nothing lead. After Ross’s single, Pat Burrell hurts his former team and drives in the second run of the inning. The Giants tagged another run in the bottom of the 5th thanks to an error by Chase Utley (who just had a bad game) to put the game away. All that is left for the Giants to do is win Lincecum’s start in game 5 and hope Matt Cain repeats his performance in game 7.
The Phillies on the other hand have nothing to worry about, but I would pitch Roy Halladay today instead of Joe Blanton and have him ready for game 7. Of course, I think the Phillies will win this series (and the World Series), they are just too good, but a bad start by Blanton could be devestating as the Giants would be one brilliant Lincecum start away from wrapping up the series. I’ll be watching (darn cablevision and news corp) tonight.
David Veloz
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