Results tagged ‘ Mariners ’
King Felix reigns!
Congratulations to King Felix Hernandez the 2010 American League Cy Young Award winner and clearly, the BEST pitcher in the AL last season. I know that it seems strange that a Yankees fan would be happy that a Mariners pitcher with only 13 victories this season beat the Yankees ace CC Sabathia, who had 21 victories. But as I argued in this post, this year the Baseball Writers had to beyond the conventional stats to determine this years award. Looking at Win-Loss record, ERA, strikeouts and innings pitch is a very narrow method of in deciding which pitcher was effective during the year. Even though CC Sabathia had 21 victories, any Yankee fan knows that his wins was the result of overwhelming run support Sabathia received. Many times during the year, Sabathia struggled throughout his starts, but was fortunate enough to be in a good team that had the ability to bail him out when ever he got in trouble. Sabathia was in no way the dominant pitcher he was last year, or in 2007 with the Cleveland Indians, when he won the Cy Young Award.
On the other hand, King Felix was dominant in most of his starts, especially the ones he lost because of the lack of run support. In 32 starts, Hernandez pitched six innings or more, but unfortunately his team provided him with only meager offensive support. If Hernandez could have traded places with Sabathia, there is a good possibility that Hernandez could have won 25 games this year. Looking just two sabermetric stats, his VORP and WHIP, Hernandez was ahead of Sabathia in both statistics, which proves over the long run that Hernandez would have been the most valuable starter in any rotation over Sabathia.
As a Yankees fan, I love Sabathia, but as baseball fan first and foremost, I can’t ignore the work of Felix Hernandez, as he was incredible this season. Once again, a big congratulations to Felix Hernandez for winning the 2010 Cy Young Award.
AL Cy Young Award: Will Sabermetrics finally win?
Tomorrow the AL Cy Young Award will be awarded to the American League’s top pitcher, and if the Baseball Writers Association of America follow their time honor tradition of awarding the Cy Young Award to American League’s best pitcher based archaic statistics like wins or strike outs, then C.C Sabathia should win the award again. However, if there is a miracle and the Writers somehow give more weight to sabermetric statistics like BABIP and DIPS, etc, then this year’s choice for the AL Cy Young Award should clearly be Felix Hernandez. No one is even close, Sabathia included, to the type of pitching production Hernandez gave his team. More importantly, if Hernandez wins, Sabermetric stats will once and for all prove that there is indeed a more objective way at analyzing a players production without relying on conventional and subjective statistics. Even though sabermetrics has been accepted by many fans (including yours truly), it seems that the Baseball Writers Association of America tends to rely on conventional statistics as a way to determine awards, like the Cy Young.
Conventional Stats v Sabermetrics..
We know which are the conventional stats usually considered by the Baseball Writers in determining who is worthy of the Cy Young Award. Wins, ERA, Strikeouts and possibly innings pitch. If wins is a determinant factor, then CC Sabathia should easily win. His 21 victories this season lead the American League and was tied for best in the Majors with Roy Halladay, the NL Cy Young Award winner. Winning 21 games is a big deal in a league in which winning just 16 games is considered a very good year. But if wins aren’t enough, ERA should also be considered. In this case, Felix Hernandez should be the winner of the Award. Hernandez’s 2.27 ERA lead the both leagues this past season. But with only 13 victories (12 losses), I don’t think King Felix’s ERA would be enough to merit the award by the conventional stats method.
But following just two simple sabermetric statistics, Felix Hernandez clearly out performs CC Sabathia. For example, Hernandez had a WHIP (Walks Hits Innings Pitched) of 1.06 which was second best in the AL. Sabathia on the other hand had a WHIP of 1.19 which was ninth best in the League. Of course WHIP alone won’t be a determining factor; what else were the Writers able to use to determine who was the best pitcher in the AL? How about VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). For a pitcher, VORP would basically mean the amount of runs prevented that a replacement player would have allowed. In this case, CC Sabathia 51.3 runs; runs a replacement pitcher would have allowed. In Felix Hernandez’s case, King Felix prevented 70.2 runs. Hernandez therefore prevented more runs this year than Sabathia did, even though the latter won 21 games.
These two statistics (out of many more) prove the quality of Hernandez’s production on the mound over Sabathia. What is even more impressive is that Hernandez did this in a poor Mariners team.
If Not Sabermetrics how about Quality Starts
Of course, there are a ton of other Sabermetric stats that shows Hernandez’s pitching dominance over Sabathia, but stats which are too complicated for the traditional Baseball Writers to accept. But if these few stats aren’t convincing, the one true statistic that should matter is the amount of quality starts. In 34 game starts, Sabathia gave the Yankees 29 quality starts of 6.0 innings or more. While in the same amount of game starts, Hernandez gave the Mariners 32 quality starts, including an impressive 17 in a row. In a better team, Hernandez could have won 23 games two games better than Sabathia and Roy Halladay.
There can be no doubt that Hernandez was the best pitcher in the American League. What now remains to be seen is if the Baseball Writers agreed with the fans and more importantly, the stats that prove King Felix was a pitcher this year. Sabermetric stats proves the type of value Felix Hernandez gave to a poor team. If King Felix was able to put those same statistics on a much better team, he would not only be considered Cy Young Award contender, but a league MVP material as well. Second, it’s about time that Sabermetric stats are given more weight in determining off-season awards.
What was the meal on that flight?
Russell Branyan just hit a shot, I mean a moon shot, into the upper deck of the New Yankee Stadium this afternoon that had me thinking about something I heard in high school: “what was the meal on that flight?” Branyan of course is the first to hit the upper deck at the new Yankee stadium, but not the first one to hit a bomb in the place. Remember last year, Adam Dunn hit a ball that I guess never landed inside the stadium, and in all probability it’s still in flight! Ok, maybe it isn’t, but you never know.
As for Javier Vazquez facing Branyan again, that would be a mistake as Branyan is now 4-for-4 off Vazquez. All of the hits are homeruns.
Jonathan Papelbon…………..
I’d like to send my heart felt congratulations to Boston Red Sox closer for blowing yet another lead and save opportunity this season. After John Lackey gave the Red Sox his best performance on the mound this season, the Red Sox pen, including Papelbon, easily give up a 5 run lead costing Lackey a much deserved win.
However, I’m going to give the Red Sox credit. After blowing a 5 run lead in the bottom of the 9th against one of the worst hitting teams in baseball, they rallied and score two runs in the 13th inning and won the game. For all the injuries, blown saves, etc, the Red Sox have not faded and continue to win. To put it simply, the Red Sox aren’t going anywhere and that makes them a very dangerous team.
Randy Johnson and few thoughts on the Hall of Fame.
Randy Johnson has decided to retire thus ending a 22 season career that can be defined by just one word: dominance. In 1988 Johnson started his Hall of Fame career as a member of the Montreal Expos, but it wasn’t until 1993, when he was a member of the Seattle Mariners, that baseball fans witness the beginning of Johnson’s mastery on the mound. That year he posted a 19-8 record, with a 3.24 ERA and 308 strike outs. That season he finished second to Black Jack McDowell in the Cy Young award voting. Two years later in 1995, Randy Johnson literally carried the Seattle Mariners into the playoffs. With an 18-2 record, a 2.48 ERA, Johnson’s pitching in September of that year was one of the reasons they were able to catch the collapsing California Angels. In 6 starts, including the one game playoff against the Angels, Johnson’s record was 5-0, with a 1.75 ERA, 63 strikeouts. In all 6 games, Johnson gave the Mariners a quality start averaging 7.1 innings a start. And in the playoff game against the Angels, Johnson tossed a complete game 3 hit, 1 run game. In the 1995 ALDS Johnson beat the Yankees twice; He did it on his regular start and in relief appearence with 1 days rest. In 2001, Johnson again repeated his feat by beating the Yankees 3 times in the Fall Classic. In that series Johnson was named co-MVP, along with Curt Schilling. In between and after that World Series, Johnson did things that left baseball fans in complete awe. He twice struck out 19 batters in a single game and struckout 20 Reds in a single game in 2001. He pitched a perfect game in 2004 and last year, as a member of the San Francisco Giants, Johnson recorded his 300th win. Johnson will finish his carrer with 303 wins and 166 loses and will be second in career strike outs with 4,875.
Randy Johnson thank you for being an outstanding pitcher during your 22 year career. What you accomplished during that time span is something that I will never forget.
Hall of Fame Predictions…
I’m going to predict that Roberto Alomar will get in on his first time Hall of Fame ballot. He deserves to since he was the most dominant player at his position during his career.
Bert Blyleven will likely get in as well. I don’t know why the Writers have kept him out of the Hall all this time. Looking at his numbers, he clearly belongs in the hall.
Thus my predition is Blyleven and Alomar will be the 2010 Hall of Fame Class, but I believe others should join them.
Other players that should get in….
Lee Smith and Andre Dawson. Lee Smith was at one time the all time Major League leader in Saves. People often speak of Rivera and Hoffman as Hall of Famers, but before there was a Rivera and a Hoffman, there was Lee Smith. If anything, Lee’s production since he left the Cubs after the 87 season was great. During the next 16 years, Smith averaged 23.5 saves. During that span Lee was responsible for saving 377 games, or as I like to say it, nailing down 377 wins. Overall, Lee Smith finished his career with 478 saves, a 3.03 ERA and 1,251 strikeouts.
Andre Dawson in 21 big league seasons, beginning in 1976 with the Montreal Expos, Dawson batted .279 with 438 home runs, 1,591 RBIs and stole 314 bases. He was the National League Rookie of the Year in 1977 and won the NL MVP Award in 1987, his first season with the Cubs, when he hit .287 and led the league with 49 home runs and 137 RBIs.
Bradley is traded
The Milton Bradley experience in Chicago ended today as the Cubs traded the “unhappy” outfielder to Mariners in exchange for cash and right handed pitcher Carlos Silvia. Bradley’s contract was a huge mistake. Here is a player that had a career year in 2008, and it’s a career year because he for the first time hit over 20 homeruns (22) hit over .320 (.321). Bradley has throughout his career had a high OBP and SLG but in terms of total bases his career high came in 2008 with 233. If anything Bradly is a decent player but not a $30 million a year player.
Hopefully Bradley will make a new home in Seattle and become a more mature baseball player. The way he carried himself in Chicago is something that will following the rest of his career no matter where he plays. Putting down an organization that went out of its way to award him a underserved contract is pretty classless and Bradley was nothing short of classless. As for the Cubs, I don’t blame them for signing Bradley, but this was a mistake that a team that wants to win usually makes. Hopefully Chicago will recover from this horrible signing of Bradley and replace him with another player that will actually contribute to the team on the field as well as off the field.
Lee and Halladay on the move…
There is a report out there that I just heard on the radio that the Phillies will trade Cliff Lee to the Mariners, the Mariners would then send prospects to the Blue Jays and in return the Phillies will acquire the talents of Roy Halladay. If that is true this trade is the second major trade of the winter and it will have an impact on both leagues. For the American League, the Mariners adding Cliff Lee to a rotation that includes Felix Hernandez gives them a formidable one-two punch. Cliff Lee in the last 2 and a half months of the season was nothing less than brilliant. Now with this latest move, the Mariners should be considered a favorite for either the AL West division or wild card birth. The Phillies on the other hand would replace Lee with Halladay. Halladay will now be the dominant ace of a staff that includes a young J.A Happ and hopefully, for the sake of Phillies fans, a rejuvinated Cole Hamels.
Lackey signs with Red Sox…
Responding to the Yankees trade last week, the Red Sox sign John Lackey to a 5 year deal. Lackey will a very good rotation that includes Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester. Young Clay Buchholz will likely be the back end of the rotation guy. What this move says is that the Red Sox are more interesting in adding to their pitching than they are about signing Jason Bay.
Don Mattingly feature.
Here is a nice feature on Yankee legend Don Mattingly, affectionately known as “Donnie Baseball.”
This feature by Lance Wilkerson in Indiana included highlights from game 2 of the 1995 ALDS. In that game, Don Mattingly hit his first and last playoff/Major League home run of his career. That blast in the bottom of the 6th inning gave the Yankees a 1 run lead against the Mariners, a game the Yankees would eventually win thanks to a 2 run blast by Jim Leyritz. Just seeing that homerun for the first time since October 4th 1995 send shills down my spine. Watching the game that night I couldn’t help but notice how loud the stadium was that night. A deep howling of the fans cheering the then Yankee captain rounding the bases is a sound that I have not heard since–even during the championship years–and a sound I will likely never hear again. Wouldn’t it be great if the baseball writers would make an exception and vote Donnie into the Hall. I know it won’t happen but atleast Donnie didn’t cheat…
I write again.
Yanks are trailing at the moment, but it has been a good game so far. How about Gutierrez for the Mariners tonight?? CC on the other hand didn’t have his stuff working tonight. It seems most of his pitches were up in the zone and in the middle of the plate. Mariners took advantage of that and as of now they are leading. However, the Yankees could have a rally in their bones before the night is over..
David Veloz
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